000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND INITIATE GALE FORCE 
N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO THE 
SW. SEAS INITIALLY WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 FT TODAY...AND 
QUICKLY BUILD TO 22 FT BY FRI MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE TO STORM 
STRENGTH. THE BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL COINCIDE 
WITH PEAK DIURNAL FORCING AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TO GALE 
FORCE BY SAT MORNING. THIS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST 
THROUGH SUN AS WINDS FINALLY TAPER BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS DIMINISH 
BELOW 8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N88W TO 02N98W TO 
02N102W. THE ITCZ FROM 02N102W TO 08N111W TO 04N118W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 85W AND 
90W...FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W...FROM 12N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 115W...AND FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 
119W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 22N140W WITH A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. 
STRONG SW WINDS SURROUNDING THE FRONT REMAIN GENERALLY NW OF A 
LINE FROM 30N128W TO 22N140W. THE LEADING FRONT WILL GRADUALLY 
SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE WITH ANY 
REMNANTS MERGING WITH THE REINFORCING FRONT BY FRI MORNING. AS 
THE REINFORCING FRONT BECOMES THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY...FRESH TO 
STRONG SW WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST 
NEAR 30N140W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N120W WILL REMAIN 
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A MODEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS PRODUCING 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT SEAS. WINDS 
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N112W TO 11N110W IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
NEAR 12N122W. THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES CUT-OFF FROM THE 
NORTHERN STREAM.
                                                   
GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL FUNNEL ACROSS 
THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. EARLY FRI...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 8-10 FT AT THE TIME OF 
STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LIKELY 
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING HOURS.
 
$$ 
HUFFMAN