000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042137 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED FEB 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINS WEAK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. THIS IS RESULTING IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...PARTICULARLY N OF 15.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 95.5W WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NE THROUGH EARLY THU...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION REINFORCING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT... GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING THU MORNING AROUND 1200 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 40-45 KT BY EARLY FRI MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 18 TO 20 FT. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SAT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N139W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N137W TO 25N140W. S TO SW WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUE AT NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH 05/0000 UTC. SHIP CALL SIGN 3FYS8 ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35-40 KT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE THU AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W. THEREAFTER...THE MERGED FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND 30N133W TO 23N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COVERING THE WATERS GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 21N140W BY FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE IN THE 14 TO 16 FT RANGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 12 TO 14 FT BY FRI...WHILE BUILDING TO 15 TO 17 FT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW CORNER BY LATE FRI WITH THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 03N93W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N93W TO 01N100W TO 05N108W TO 06N129W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 83W AND 92W...AND FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS INFLUENCE SOUTH TO NEAR 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 133W FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR 27N122W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SPECIAL FEATURES COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH GENERALLY 6-8 FT SEAS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THU AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N119W TO 12N121W WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT AT TIMES OF STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND LIKELY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN