000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED FEB 4 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 
0400 UTC SHOWED 20-30 KT WINDS N OF 15N IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED THERE TODAY... 
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG HIGH WIND EVENT WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 
45 KT...COMMENCING THU MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SAT MORNING 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A 
STRONG COLD FRONT. WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 13-14 
FT THU...AND PEAK AT 17-19 FT EARLY FRI.
 
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 35N144W. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA LATER THIS 
MORNING. S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE 
FORCE THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE 
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THU THEN STALL FROM 
30N135W TO 25N140W FRI. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 16-17 FT 
LATER TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
ITCZ FROM 03N92W TO 07N106W TO 06N116W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 27N124W. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH GENERALLY 6-7 FT 
SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH 
THU AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
                                                   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DURING STRONGEST 
DIURNAL FORCING THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA BY EARLY THU MORNING...THEN RE-INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL