000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE FEB 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO WED. SEAS THROUGH WED WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY FROM THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE INTO THE 7 TO 8 FT RANGE BY WED LATE. THEREAFTER INTO THU...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME REINFORCED AND STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING THU MORNING AROUND 1200 UTC. OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BY EARLY FRI...THE EVENT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 45 KT WITH MAXIMUM EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THU TO 14 FT... AND LIKELY PEAK AROUND 18 TO 20 FT EARLY FRI. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CURRENTLY NEAR 33N148W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA EARLY WED. EAST OF THE FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE BY 04/0600 UTC N OF 27N W OF 138W. THIS AREA OF GALE FORCE WIND WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO TRANSITION AND BECOME STATIONARY EARLY THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 12 TO 17 FT RANGE BY WED AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER INTO THU. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N80W TO 02N85W TO 04N91W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 05N102W TO 04N114W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N104W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN BETWEEN 93W AND 107W THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ REGION NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED GENERALLY N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N130W TO 10N139W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 127W. AT THE SURFACE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W INFLUENCES THE WATERS GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...HOWEVER A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF 10N W OF 125W. SEAS ARE RANGING 7 TO 9 FT WITHIN THIS AREA AND GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FURTHER WED INTO THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AS A NEW COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25- 30 KT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT AT TIMES OF STRONGEST DIURNAL FORCING DURING LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU MORNING. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. $$ HUFFMAN