000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE FEB 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED 
WITH HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE... 
IS ALSO GENERATING MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
ASCAT DATA AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ SHOW 
PEAK WINDS TO 30 KT AT 0300 UTC. LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN 
GULF WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE 
SYSTEM TO CURTAIL SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...WITH 
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS TO 11-12 FT THIS 
MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT BY WED MORNING.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
CURRENTLY NEAR 28N162W WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW WATERS WED MORNING 
AND S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KT 
AS THE LOW DEEPENS N OF THE AREA. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WED MORNING...DIMINISHING TO NEAR GALE 25-30 KT WED 
AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE SEAS TO 15-17 FT EXPECTED N OF 29N AS THE 
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 07N116W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 34N128W SOUTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 137W. WEAKENING 
PRES GRADIENT N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 130W IS PRODUCING 
FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 134W. 
WINDS AND SEAS HERE WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E BY THE COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS. 
             
SW FLOW ALOFT E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO 
THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG A TROUGH 
FROM 20N105W TO 13N110W. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND 
MOVE NE...BUT A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

GAP WINDS...
                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY 
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT AT TIMES OF STRONGEST DIURNAL 
FORCING DURING LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING...BUT WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THU MORNING. 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL