000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON FEB 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA 
IS SENDING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
OF THE UNITED STATES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PASSING S 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 1530 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 25 
KT WINDS WERE ALREADY FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED ACROSS SE MEXICO BETWEEN HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER NE TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOWER PRESSURE TO 
THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE 30 KT AT 1800 UTC 
AND SHOULD REACH GALE FORCE BY 0000 UTC THIS EVENING. A CUT OFF 
LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO...ALLOWING THE MID 
TO LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SHIFT MORE 
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY TUE. THE GALE WARNING IS 
FORECAST TO EXPIRE AFTER SUNRISE TUE AS A RESULT. SEAS WILL 
RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 10-12 FT THIS EVENING. 

GALE WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUPPORTS A FRONT JUST W OF THE 
NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CAN BE 
FOUND OVER THE NW PORTION AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS AREA 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ON TUE...A NEW BATCH OF ENERGY ROUNDING 
THE S PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD 
ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY WED 
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST. GALE CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD WED AFTERNOON.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N94W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N127W SENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 20N110W AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 26N133W TO 
BEYOND 23N140W. THIS HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND SHIFTED N OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS...SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE ITCZ. TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER W 
WATERS AS A RESULT. FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA...WITH A BELT OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM 11N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 122W ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. 
WINDS AND SEAS HERE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY WED AS THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS AND IS PUSHED E BY THE COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE WARNING OVER NW WATERS. 
             
AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...A MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIES 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF 
THIS CUT OFF LOW IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN 
COAST. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON AN ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 20N104W TO 11N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH S 
OF 15N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 15N...BUT 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND 
OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN N OF 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 
107W. THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NE INTO 
TEXAS....BUT THE LOCATION OF THE SW JET PROPELLING MOISTURE INTO 
MEXICO SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST 
BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL AND 
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUE BEFORE SHIFTING NE.

GAP WINDS...
                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA...BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY 
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING THAT 
PERIOD. THESE DIURNALLY PULSING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED.
 
$$ 
SCHAUER