000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON FEB 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE  
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
SE MEXICO AND PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE TUE AFTERNOON AS 
A TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. MAX SEAS WILL 
RAPIDLY BUILD TO 12-13 FT THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE 
TUE.

GALE WARNING ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST 
TO ENTER THE REGION BY WED AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...MARINE 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS S-SW WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE AND BUILDING 
SEAS OF 9-13 FT N OF 28N W OF 137W. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING 
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N89W TO 04N97W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N97W TO 07N110W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 06N 
E OF 80W...FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W AND FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE N WATERS TO AROUND 19N. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS FROM 09N TO 15N W OF 120W DUE 
TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS EXPECTED 
TO SHRINK FURTHER TODAY OVER W WATERS AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS 
AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT BY WED MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. 
HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
TO 7-8 FT W OF 130W THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW NE 
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO 
NEAR 90W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING THAT 
PERIOD. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PANAMA ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO NEAR 05N BASED ON THE 
MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. CORRESPONDING SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT. 
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. 
 
$$ 
NR/GR