000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON FEB 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS SENDING A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT ON ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES BY MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS S THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEFORE SUNSET ON MON. A QUICK BURST OF 30-35 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. MEANWHILE...A CUT OFF LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO...ALLOWING THE MID TO LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY TUE. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST EXPIRE AFTER SUNRISE TUE AS A RESULT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10-12 FT TUE MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N93W TO 05N102W TO 04N100W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N130W SENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 15N115W AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 27N140W. THIS HIGH HAS WEAKENED 4 MB OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 1900 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS HAS LIKELY SHRUNK WESTWARD SINCE THAT TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER W WATERS TONIGHT AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. SEAS OVER 8 FT WITHIN THE TRADE WIND BELT ARE EXPECTED TO SHRINK TO W OF 132W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE WINDS COME DOWN A NOTCH TO A FRESH BREEZE. AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS CUT OFF LOW IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N104W TO 14N110W ACCORDING TO LIGHTNING DATA...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN 19N AND 26N PRIMARILY E OF 107W. THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO....BUT THE LOCATION OF THE SW JET PROPELLING MOISTURE INTO MEXICO SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT JUST W OF THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NW PORTION AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS AREA THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. ON TUE...A NEW BATCH OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE S PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY. S WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONG BREEZE SHOULD TAKE A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE DAY MON BEFORE BECOMING REINVIORATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. THE BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A FRESH BREEZE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE EVENING. $$ SCHAUER