000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT JAN 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N90W TO 07N123W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 101W AND 109W AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 116W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N132W SENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 18N114W AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 24N140W. 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 1900 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE 
TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND 
W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE 
OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO 
WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEND A CUT OFF LOW 
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON. PACIFIC 
MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM IS SUPPLYING FUEL FOR THE 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. LIGHTNING 
DATA SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA S OF 30N AS WELL AS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO N OF 20N 
PRIMARILY W OF THE SIERRA MADE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. RADARS OVER 
THE SW UNITED STATES SHOW THE PRECIPITATION IS MOST WIDESPREAD 
IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND ALONG ITS BORDER WITH MEXICO. AS THE 
UPPER TROUGH DIGS S AND TURNS MORE POSITIVE TILT...THE 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT S AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM THE 
COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL MEXICO 
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MON AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SE RETURN FLOW BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER 
NW MEXICO. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL QUICKLY 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF 8-10 FT 
COMBINED SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO SPANS 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. 
THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH LATE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN 
PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF 
DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH MON MORNING. SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK 
EASTWARD AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE 1520 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA WERE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT. 
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AGAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
SUN BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N BY EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE 
SUBSIDING.
 
$$ 
SCHAUER