000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 16-17 FT BY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35- 40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N80W TO 07N99W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N99W TO 08N110W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW S-SW TO 15N125W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 110W-118W. AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING... EXTENDS FROM 20N134W TO 13N136W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 130W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AROUND 25/1800 UTC AND EXTEND FROM 30N136W TO 23N140W BY 26/1800 UTC. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS REACHING THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 15N130W TO 07N140W BY 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N OF 29N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 25 KT N OF 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. $$ GR