000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241539 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AS COLD DENSE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 19 FT AT THE PEAK WIND TIME FRAME AROUND 25/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT AS THE STRONG RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY ON MON FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ON WED. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 35-40 KT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 04N83W TO 05N100W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 07N107W TO 06N120W TO 06N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 89W...AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N116W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO 15N128W. AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING E-NE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING AND IS ENHANCED FURTHER BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 112W-118W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING... EXTENDS FROM 12N138W TO 17N134W. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS GENERALLY W OF A TRIANGLE SHAPED AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 21N125W TO 13N140W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 120W. AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NE OF HAWAII...IS PROPAGATING SE THROUGH THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT ALONG A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM NEAR 30N136W TO 24N140W. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NEAR 30N125W TO 16N132W TO 08N140W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY FRESH TO STRONG FROM N OF 27N WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO LATE SUN. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON...AND STARTING BACK UP SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. $$ HUFFMAN