000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY...THEN 
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN 
MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. COLD 
DENSE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL QUICKLY 
REACH GALE FORCE EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 40 KT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-18 FT EARLY 
SUN MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WIND EVENT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS A LONG DURATION GALE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT TUE AFTERNOON 
BUT INCREASING AGAIN WED MORNING...AND LASTING INTO FRI MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 07N85W TO 08N91W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 05N114W TO 06N122W TO 04N128W TO 06N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N129W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N. A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 20N127W...EXTENDS FROM 19N129W TO 16N132W WITH 
MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS 
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD 
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC N OF HAWAII...IS SWEEPING INTO NW 
WATERS TODAY. MAX SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-14 FT NORTH OF 25N W OF 
135W. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 33N138W TO 26N143W TO 
19N152W SUN...THEN WEAKEN IN NW WATERS SUN NIGHT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N134W TO 24N140W MON THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH THROUGH TUE. 
 
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN COMBINATION WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG BETWEEN 23N 
AND 27N THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...                                                
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT 
SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

$$ 
MUNDELL