000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI JAN 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT BEGINNING AROUND 24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT BY 24/1200 UTC AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH 25/1200Z. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI... AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF SAT. EXPECT MAX SEAS TO 15-16 FT BY LATE SAT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N85W TO 05N100W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N100W TO 06N110W TO 05N1125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N128W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE LOW IS ANALYZED FROM FROM 21N128W TO 16N129W. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N131W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAINLY FROM 18N TO 24N W OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. THIS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...WITH A LEADING EDGE PERIOD OF 21 TO 23 SECONDS...ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12-13 FT. BY FRI MORNING...THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 12-13 FT AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 132W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF AROUND 6 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX SEAS OF 6 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. $$ GR