000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                      
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. PEAK WINDS WILL BE 40-42 KT SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MAX SEAS 
TO 15-17 FT EARLY SUN MORNING WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 05N93W TO 06N98W. THE  
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N98W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N130W. AT 
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS LOCATED FROM 19N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 121W AND 136W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N132W TO 
20N131W. 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA LOCATED NEAR 35N131W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS N OF 20N. FAIRLY PLACID CONDITIONS 
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. 

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NW 
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12- 14 FT WITH 
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED W OF 135W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THESE SWELLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG N 
OF 30N THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI...WITH 
FRESH NW WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

$$ 
MUNDELL