000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU JAN 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                      
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 
TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT MORNING. 
CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONSET OF THE EVENT 
BEGINNING AROUND 24/0300 UTC WITH NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY 
REACHING GALE FORCE BY 24/0600 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 05N93W TO 06N98W. THE  
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N98W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 17N132W AND 
EXHIBITS A CLASSIC COMMA CLOUD SATELLITE PRESENTATION. AT THE 
SURFACE...A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N133W TO 18N132W AND IS 
LARGELY THE FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG 
TRADES LOCATED FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 123W AND 136W. OUTSIDE OF 
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
STRENGTHENED DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH 
AS A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N131W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES 
INDICATE GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 6 
TO 8 FT RANGE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OUTSIDE OF PRIMARY GAP WIND 
LOCATIONS...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE NOTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS...THE NEXT SWELL EVENT IS ON THE 
HEELS OF THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE 
NW WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 
TO 14 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED N OF 20N W OF 135W. THE 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO 
ARRIVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN.

ELSEWHERE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SW 
UNITED STATES THAT WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS 
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI. NW TO N WINDS WILL 
BECOME FRESH TO STRONG N OF 27N BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD 
SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
EARLY FRI. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION 
THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...                                              
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT THROUGH 
AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA SUPPORTS THESE MARINE CONDITIONS.

$$ 
HUFFMAN