000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212139 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JAN 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 08N85W TO 05N96W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N96W TO 06N106W TO 05N116W TO 06N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 18N133W ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 30N127W TO 18N133W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 131W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N134W TO 15N134W. A RIDGE IS NOTED E OF 100W OVER SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EPAC WATERS N OF 03N. HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 20N112W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 14-15 FT NEAR 30N140W THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SW CONUS WILL TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ARIZONA AND NW MEXICO BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ. WINDS WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG N OF 30N THU MORNING...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY FRI. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF BY EARLY FRI MORNING. FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT. GAP WINDS... PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC WITH SEAS OF 6- 7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. MAX SEAS OF 6-7 FT ARE EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT MORNING. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-40 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 15-16 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. $$ GR