000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED JAN 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 05N83W TO 07N87W TO 
05N95W TO 06N106W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N106W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N AND 75 NM S OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS E OF 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 10N140W TO A BASE WELL WEST OF THE 
AREA NEAR 03N155W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS 
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W...AND MOSTLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH 
SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 14-15 FT NEAR 30N140W THROUGH THU NIGHT 
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT THROUGH SAT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA TONIGHT AND THU...TO COMBINE 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BECOME 
FRESH TO STRONG N OF 30N THU MORNING...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. 
FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
                                              
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20-22 
KT IN THE EARLY MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING EARLY 
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU.
 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH FRI 
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-40 KT AND 
BUILDING SEAS TO 15-16 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. 
 
 
$$ 
MUNDELL