000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201723 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JAN 20 2015

UPDATED FOR GULF OF CALIFORNIA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N80W TO 06N87W TO 
04N94W TO 05N102W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N107W TO 09N120W TO 
10N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 92W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
                                 
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N118W TO 
09N112W TO 03N106W IS ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EAST OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 109W AND 115W. AN UPPER TROUGH 
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 33N129W TO 
11N142W IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 135W...CENTERED NEAR 21N134W. A TRIO 
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS LOCATED ALONG 124W NEAR 20N...ALONG 115W 
NEAR 14N AND NEAR 06N105W ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION.

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 135W...AND MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA THU MORNING...WITH SEAS 
RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 14-15 FT NEAR 30N140W THROUGH THU NIGHT... 
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-11 FT THROUGH SAT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER ARIZONA WED NIGHT AND THU...TO COMBINE 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NW MEXICO AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS WILL BECOME 
FRESH TO STRONG N OF 30N THU MORNING...THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. 
FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...A WEAKENING RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A 
DIURNAL PATTERN FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG NOCTURNAL NE 
WINDS PULSING THROUGH PAPAGAYO INTO SAT. PEAK WINDS WILL REACH 
25 KT EACH MORNING...WITH A LULL EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH 
SAT. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 
FRI NIGHT THEN INCREASE EARLY SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE SAT 
MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA THROUGH FRI.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL