000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON JAN 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N73W TO 02.5N82W TO 08N87W TO 
04.5N99W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO LOW PRES 
1011 MB NEAR 08N106.5W TO 10N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N AND 90 NM S 
OF ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...
                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ 
ALONG THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST HAVE BEEN BELOW 20 KT ALL MORNING 
WHICH INDICATES THE NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE WEAKENED...AND GALE FORCE 
WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. N WINDS TO 25 KT ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14.5N 
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT TUE MORNING. GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE REGION 
SAT MORNING.
                                 
A BROAD MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED CURRENTLY NEAR 15N117W...AND ITS INFLUENCE COVERING AN 
AREA FROM 06N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 122W. ON THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW N OF THE ITCZ...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N AND 90 NM S OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 102W AND 106W. FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 
110W. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN INTO A SHARP 
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS 
THIS AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N131W TO 14N131W AND 
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS FROM 20N 
TO 23.5N BETWEEN 131W AND 135W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 10 FT. A 
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUES S OF 25N W OF 
124W...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 8-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. 

AN AREA OF 8-9 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
NE PART OF THE AREA WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT... 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA...AND PERSIST THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A 
PATTERN FOR OCCASIONAL FRESH TO STRONG DIURNAL NE WINDS PULSING 
THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL REACH 25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE...WITH A LULL EACH DAY 
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 7-8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF EACH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. 
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER BY TUE MORNING...WITH 
WINDS BARELY REACHING 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
PANAMA TONIGHT DUE TO A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
AREA. MAX SEAS TO 6-7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE 
MORNING HOURS. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE WEAKER TUE MORNING...WITH 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
$$ 
STRIPLING