000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190401 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JAN 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND IS FUNNELING N WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NOON TIME ASCAT DATA INDICATED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS HAS STARTED ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT BY THIS EVENING...THE GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE MONDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-15 FT OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BY GLOBAL MODELS AGAIN IN THE REGION UNTIL FRI NIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND ILL DEFINED ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 05N93W TO 10N110W...WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM 08.5N116W TO 09.5N127W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 01.5N E OF 81W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF ITCZ TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS N OF 08N AND SPANNED THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...AND CONNECTS N OF 20N WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 13N122W...WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THIS CYCLONE TO 09N110W. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING E OF THE CYCLONE AND N OF THE ITCZ WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AND WEAKEN INTO A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 127W FROM 13N TO 21N. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE DRY AND STABLE AIR OCCURRING ACROSS THE W PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A ZONE OF STRONG NE WINDS DRAPED ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH...FROM 19N TO 22.5N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT. A BROADER AREA OF FRESH NE TO E TRADES CONTINUES S OF 23N AND W OF THE TROUGH TO 140W...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 8-9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A PATTERN FOR FRESH TO STRONG DIURNAL NE WINDS PULSING THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE... BRIEFLY REACHING 30 KT DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH A LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. SEAS WILL REACH 8-9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF MON MORNING. THESE LOCAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER BY TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS ONLY REACHING 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAX SEAS TO 7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE WEAKER TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ STRIPLING