000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN JAN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH 
FROM TEXAS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND FUNNEL WINDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND IS EXPECTED 
TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING WITHIN THE NEXT 3 
TO 6 HOURS. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 35-40 KT TONIGHT 
AND REMAIN AROUND 35 KT THROUGH MON MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL 
REACH 13-14 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH 
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED BY 
GLOBAL MODELS AGAIN IN THE REGION UNTIL FRI NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 06N93W. THE 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 09N111W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N116W 
TO 07N131W TO 05N140W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW FROM 10N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N123W TO 15N125W IS DRIFTING 
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
ITSELF IS MINIMAL...BUT AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N120W IS 
ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WELL E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. A RAPIDSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0830 UTC 
SHOWED WINDS GENERALLY 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH. MAX SEAS ARE 
AROUND 10 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT 
WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL IN THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS 
FRESH TO STRONG DIURNAL NE WINDS PULSING THROUGH PAPAGAYO. PEAK 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 25 KT DURING LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE...BRIEFLY REACHING 30 KT 
DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH A 
LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS WILL REACH 8-9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF MON MORNING. LOCAL 
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER TUE MORNING...WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH MON NIGHT DUE TO A PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE AREA. MAX SEAS TO 7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING 
THE MORNING. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE WEAKER TUE MORNING...WITH 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL