000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180855
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN JAN 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EAST 
COAST OF MEXICO REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK THIS MORNING. THE STRONG 
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND HAS ENDED TEMPORARILY THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AS LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PER RECENT 18/0310 AND 18/0358 
UTC ASCAT PASSES. HOWEVER...20 TO 30 KT FLOW N OF 14N BETWEEN 
94W AND 95.5W CONTINUES WITHIN A SMALL SWATH OF THE GULF WATERS. 
HIGH PRES IS BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AND WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED 
TO REACH GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON AROUND 1500-1800 UTC SUN. PEAK 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 35 TO 40 KT SUN NIGHT...AND REMAIN AT GALE 
FORCE THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE 
AGAIN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS 
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N93W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 09N107W TO 08N111W THEN RESUMES NEAR 
07N118W TO 08N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N125W TO 21N122W AND 
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. CONVECTION 
REMAINS LIMITED TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRIMARILY IN A 
REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N121W. THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE 
TROUGH HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH 
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OCCURRING FROM ROUGHLY 19N TO 
23N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND 
FIELD IN THIS AREA...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 9 TO 12 FT RANGE AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. OTHERWISE...THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND THE 
ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGE AREA OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO 
THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS 
SOUTHWARD FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N127W SE TO 17N107W AND SW 
FROM THE HIGH TO 24N147W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PULSING THROUGH PAPAGAYO. 
PEAK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN EXCESS OF 25 KT DURING LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON...BRIEFLY REACHING 30 
KT DURING MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH 
A LULL EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT. 
SEAS WILL REACH 8-9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF EACH MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL PERSIST IN 
THE GULF OF PANAMA DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. 
MAX SEAS TO 7 FT EXPECTED AT PEAK WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
 
$$ 
HUFFMAN