000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170856
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT JAN 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW 
CONTINUES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG RIDGING ALONG THE 
EASTERN MEXICAN COAST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED A NARROW SWATH OF NEAR GALE TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE...30 TO 40 KT...N-NE WINDS FROM GENERALLY 
16N95W TO 14N96W. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SEAS IN 
THE RANGE OF 9 TO 14 FT. BY SAT LATE MORNING THE EVENT WILL 
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WITH N-NE WINDS 
REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 
FT OR LESS. THEREAFTER...A SMALL POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N81W TO 09N85W 
TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N92W TO 07N107W TO 12N118W... 
THEN RESUMES NEAR 07N131W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N128W 
SE TO 24N113W AND ALSO SW FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 26N140W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW CENTER ABOVE AND THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS S OF 24N 
EXTENDING W OF 120W TO 140W...WITH ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES MERGING 
WITH FADING NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THIS 
AREA. THIS WAVE FIELD WILL DECAY SLIGHTLY AND BECOME CONFINED TO 
THE WATERS W OF 125W BY SUN MORNING.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N119W. LATEST ASCAT PASSES 
SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM OF 
CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE NW 
QUADRANT. AN ALTIMETER PASS ALSO DIRECTLY EAST OF THE LOW CENTER 
INDICATED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT. TO THE WEST OF THE 
LOW...A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS NOTED WITH SEAS RANGING 
FROM 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
GENERALLY WESTWARD REACHING NEAR 20N128W BY EARLY MON MORNING 
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE 
CONTINUING TO DRIFT WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE LOW IS LOCATED NE 
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 
14N123W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DRIFTS EASTWARD AND 
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS BY EARLY MON...THE SURFACE LOW LIKELY FILL 
SLOWLY AND ANY REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND 
THE RELATIVELY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N WILL BE 
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FRESH NE TRADES TO THE WEST THROUGH MON. 
A SMALL AREA OF SEAS TO 11 FT WILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN 
PLACE WITHIN THE NORTH QUADRANT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW 
CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL 
ACROSS THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN AND DOWNWIND OF 
PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 48 HOURS...BRIEFLY 
INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH A BRIEF LULL OF WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS 
WILL BUILD DURING THESE PERIODS OF INCREASING WINDS...REACHING  
8-9 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF EACH MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
PRESENT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY 
MORNING PEAK OF NORTHERLY WINDS.
 
$$ 
HUFFMAN