000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI JAN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND FAR 
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALONG THE 
EASTERN MEXICAN COAST CONTINUES TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE WINDS SAT MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND WINDS QUICKLY 
CONTRACT TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SAT 
INTO SUN. THE NEXT ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS START SUN EVENING 
INTO MON MORNING. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS OF 9-
14 FT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON DURING THE PERIOD OF 
STRONGEST WINDS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 09N84W TO 08N88W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N88W TO 05N94W TO 05N104W TO 10N116W... 
THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N128W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 33N126W TO 22N111W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 11N125W TO A DEVELOPING 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IN 
THE VICINITY OF 16N118W. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN A BROAD 
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. THIS TROUGHING ALOFT 
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF A DEEP LAYER LOW NEAR 15N124W BY FRI 
AFTERNOON WHILE DRIFTING E-SE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN GENERALLY NW THROUGH SUN. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE FAIRLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TO E WINDS WERE CAPTURED ON TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND 
16/0256 UTC AND 16/0348 UTC. IT IS FAIRLY PROBABLE DURING THE 
PERIOD OF MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EACH NIGHT THAT WINDS 
WILL REACH 30 KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8-9 FT.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND 
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT N OF 06N DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
PERIOD AND AGAIN FRI FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SAT. SEAS OF 
4-6 FT WILL INCREASE TO 5-7 FT DURING THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST 
WINDS.
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SLOW MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SW UNITED STATES DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
BUILD BETWEEN LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 29N THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
HUFFMAN