000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JAN 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE ON MON. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING. THE MINIMAL GALE PULSES WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE LATE THU WILL RESULT IN 35-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 18 FT. NE SWELL FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS INTO CENTRAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF SEAS PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO NE TO E SWELL IS MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CURRENTLY AFFECTING MOST OF THE WATERS FROM NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N90W TO 07N120W TO 09N134W THEN RESUMES W OF TROUGH FROM 09N136W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 131W...AND FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N115W TO 28N114W TO 22N120W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE MAIN FRONT AND LIES FROM 31N117W TO 29N116W TO 26N121W. BOTH FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INCREASING WINDS BRIEFLY TO 15-20 KT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THESE FRONTS IS NW SWELL. THIS SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA BY TUE MORNING...WHEN ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST REGION LATE TUE AND EXTEND FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W TUE EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N136W TO 10N137W. AN EARLIER RAPIDSCAT SHOWED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NE WATERS AND AS THE TROUGHING INCREASES. WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH OVER WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLIGHTLY WEAKENS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 30 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ GR