000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT JAN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS 
STRONG BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING S FROM NE MEXICO TOWARD THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING 
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
THE AREA BEGINS TO RELAX. BASED ON MARINE GUIDANCE...MINIMAL 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. 
MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 9-13 FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE TO 8-11 FT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. 

NE SWELL FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULFS INTO CENTRAL WATERS. THIS AREA OF SEAS 
PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO NE TO E SWELL WILL SHRINK EASTWARD AS 
THE WINDS IN THE GULFS GENERALLY DIMINISH AND AN AREA OF 
PRIMARILY NW SWELL CURRENTLY W OF 115W EXPANDS EASTWARD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 05N90W TO 04N110W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 
NM N OF TROUGH/AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 134W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 138W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 30N119W TO 22N127W AND IS THEN A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N140W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF 
THE FRONT IS NW SWELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT IS 
CURRENTLY REACHING FROM NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO TO THE EQUATOR AT 
120W. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE AREA N OF 
20N THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE NW SWELL S OF 20N OVERLAPS WITH 
AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 120W. 
THESE TRADES ARE DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
ITCZ AND HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS HERE ARE IN THE 8-
11 FT RANGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH MON MORNING. A 
TROUGH BUILDING JUST N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 130W IS EXPECTED TO 
ENHANCE THE TRADES SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY 
LATE MON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE 
WESTWARD REACHING A POSITION ALONG 135W FROM 10N TO 17N BY LATE 
MON.

GAP WINDS...                                                   
GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE 
TO 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH 
MON MORNING AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE 
TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST MON 
MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF THE DRAINAGE 
FLOW. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 
30 KT NE WINDS IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KT 
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. 
 
$$
GR