000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JAN 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CEASE BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. NOTING THAT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE PULSING OF THE GALE CONDITIONS THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THAT MAINTAINS MINIMAL GALE WINDS. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM 30 KT WINDS BEGINNING ON SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON. THE GRIDS DEPICT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AGAIN MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 08N78W TO ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND CENTRAL PANAMA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN DIPS SW TO 06N92W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO 04N105W...THEN TURNS NW TO 07N118W...THEN WIGGLES WSW TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 07N77W TO 02N82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N91W TO 04N100W AND ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN AREA FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 110-136W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TRAILING AN UPPER TROUGH S ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 16N105W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113-130W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OBSERVED FROM 32N132W TO 20N146W. THE UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION...AND ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE WESTERN TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 20N140W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING ENE TO NEAR 22N131W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 18N. A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME... ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...IS STREAMING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 03-16N BETWEEN 140- 106W..AND TAPS THE ADDITIONAL ITCZ DEBRIS MOISTURE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE PLUME NARROWS NEAR 12N105W...AND THEN CONTINUES ENE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING WITHIN AN OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS DECK NEAR 33N123W WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N121W TO 21N130W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 19N140W. THE COLD FRONT SEGMENT WILL SLOW LATER TODAY WITH THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED POST-FRONTAL NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS W OF 116W...AND MIXES WITH SE-S CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. EXPECT THE NW SWELL TO CONTINUE E TO ALONG 105W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT FROM THE NW. GUIDANCE FAVORS AN INVERTED NW-SE ORIENTATED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ ALONG ABOUT 132W ON MON. A SECOND LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N125W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRIDS WILL INDICATE AND AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS...SEAS 8-12 FT...TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10-17N BETWEEN 115-135W ON MON NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT WED. A TROPICAL LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH NEAR 11N126W ON TUE- WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WSW ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 09N91W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KT DURING THE MAXIMUM NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE...WITH THESE PULSES OCCURRING EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY SWELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MERGES WITH THE NE SWELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE RESULTANT NE-E SWELL MIXES TO PRODUCE A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER THAT PROPAGATES W ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS AS FAR W AS 116W WHERE IT BEGINS TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FROM THE E EARLY NEXT WEEK. GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA 20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON