000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI JAN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING S FROM THE NE COAST OF MEXICO TOWARD 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TROUGHING TO THE S ALONG THE ITCZ 
IS SUPPORTING 35 KT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. 
MINIMAL GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO BE
18 FEET THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 9-13 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AS SUCH THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE 
IN PLACE THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WEAKENING OF THE 
RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL ACT TO 
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA...THUS THE WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 30 KT SAT MORNING AND 
TO 25 KT SUN MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN.

NE SWELL FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 8-12 FOOT RANGE TO MUCH OF THE DOWNSTREAM 
AREA E OF 120W. THIS AREA OF SEAS PRIMARILY ATTRIBUTED TO NE 
SWELL WILL SHRINK EASTWARD AS THE WINDS IN THE GAPS GENERALLY 
DIMINISH AND NW SWELL MOVES INTO WESTERN WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N88W WHERE THE 
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 05N88W TO 05N110W TO 07N130W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A COLD FRONT FROM 30N124W TO 22N131W IS BEHIND A 1018 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 25N119W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS 
THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE 
BOUNDARY ADVANCES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A WEAKER 
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS NW 
SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-20 SECOND RANGE CURRENTLY ALONG 
THE CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND EXPECTED TO MOVE S 
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. OVER NW 
WATERS...SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 
NW SWELL PROPAGATING S OF 22N WILL MEET UP WITH AN AREA OF FRESH 
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS W OF 120W LATER 
TODAY...PRODUCING SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. THE TRADES OVER W 
WATERS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ 
AND STRONGER HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT MORNING AND 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
HOURS. 

$$ 
RAMOS/NELSON