000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED JAN 7 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE GALE 
FORCE EVENT THROUGH FRI MORNING. NE TO E SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH THE GALE WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER. 
BY THU EVENING...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 121W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT 
GAP WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
AND REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF 
THE AREA WEAKENS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 05N87W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 05N87W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 120W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NE WATERS 
TO 130W. COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO 
26N140W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING 
20-30 KT WINDS OVER NW WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE 
AREA OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD 
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY 
DIMINISHING...BECOMING 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED 
NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE E-SE WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 14 FT BY 
THIS EVENING. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT AND DIMINISH 
TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL