000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED JAN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE 
WINDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO 
MAINTAIN THE GALE FORCE EVENT THROUGH FRI MORNING. NE TO E SWELL 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH THE GALE FORCE WIND 
EVENT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AREA 
OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER. BY THU EVENING...SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
WILL COVER MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 13N BETWEEN 92W AND 121W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL 
ALSO SUPPORT GAP WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH 
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N85W WHERE LOW LEVEL 
WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 130W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE 
NW WATERS ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N125W EXTENDING TO NEAR 
20N136W. LOW PRESSURE OF 982 MB IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 45N154W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING A LARGE 
SWATH OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W. 
CONVERGENCE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES INTO THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING THE MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS 
MENTIONED ABOVE. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW 
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO 
WED MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO STRONG BY WED 
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU 
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA 
WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 14 FT BY WED EVENING. 

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT AND 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
HOURS WED AND THU. 

$$ 
AL