000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060935
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE JAN 6 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT STORM 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS TO NEAR 20 FT 
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY 
TUE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE. WINDS 
WILL REMAIN GALE FORCE THROUGH FRI MORNING. NE SWELL ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS EVENT COMBINED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER 
REACHING NEAR 115W BY WED AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ALSO SUPPORT 
GAP WINDS PULSING TO GALE FORCE DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN 
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. STRONG WINDS EXTENDING WELL DOWNSTREAM 
FROM SOURCE REGION WILL PRODUCE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS WHICH WILL  
MERGE WITH SWELLS FROM STORM EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON AS 
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N76W TO 05N84W. ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 05N84W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 133W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NE PORTION OF AREA FROM THE SW 
U.S. TO 21N132W. OCCLUDED 973 MB LOW WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
45N154W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER NW WATERS AND FRESH TRADES 
N OF ITCZ OVER WESTERN WATERS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING 
ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 120W. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH 
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
NW WATERS TUE EVENING. A FRESH SET OF NW SWELLS WILL ACCOMPANY 
THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-13 FT OVER THE FAR NW 
WATERS BY WED EVENING. 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS HELPING PRODUCE 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 
HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO 
DIMINISH WINDS LATER THIS MORNING. 

$$
MUNDELL