000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050915 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JAN 5 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE THROUGH CHIVELA PASS LATER TODAY. THE DENSE...COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AT 0325 UTC SHOWED MAX WINDS TO 40 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STORM FORCE 45-50 KT THIS MORNING. AFTER A PERIOD OF PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE AND REMAIN AT GALE FORCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15- 20 FT THIS MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. NE SWELL GENERATED BY GAP WINDS BOTH FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CREATE LARGE AREA OF 8-14 FT SEAS FROM 05N TO 15N E OF 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 04N90W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N90W TO 05N116W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA ALONG 142W N OF 20N. A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL INDUCE NEGATIVE TILT LATER TODAY. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY IN NW WATERS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NW SWELL WILL OUTRUN THE FRONT...WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 14-15 FT THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AHEAD OF FRONT ARE MOVING FOUND N OF 19N W OF 130W...WITH FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF 120W BASED ON ASCAT DATA. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...AND CONTRACT THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES TODAY. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS SUPPORTING 20-30 KT NE WINDS IN PAPAGAYO. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WELL DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT...MEETING UP WITH STRONG BREEZE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND REMAIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. MAX SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 11-12 FT DURING STRONGEST DIURNAL PULSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LEE TROUGHING W OF SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 24N. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. $$ MUNDELL