000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT JAN 3 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG 
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO SUN AND MON. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS WILL 
RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM GENTLE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW SUN MORNING 
TO STRONG GALE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. GFS 
SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 45 KT IN LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND REMAINING STEADY GALE FORCE THROUGH 
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS LONG STRETCH OF VERY STRONG WINDS WILL 
PRODUCE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER MON 
THROUGH WED AIDED BY STRONG PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT MENTIONED BELOW.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
             
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N81W TO 04N88W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 07N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N110W TO 
06N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A 993 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 39N156W. A 
FRONT IS W OF THE AREA BETWEEN 145W AND 150W. A DEVELOPING 998 
MB LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS CENTERED N OF OAHU NEAR 24N157W. 
A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY THROUGH 
SUN WHILE THE LOW NEAR HAWAII LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL TIGHTEN 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADE WINDS FROM 
10N TO 24N W OF 115W WITH A FEW AREAS OF FRESH TRADES NEAR 130W. 
EXPECT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PRODUCING LARGE AREA 
OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NW AND EASTERLY SWELL N OF CONVERGENCE 
ZONE W OF 115-120W. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES N OF THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS WITH SEAS TO 10 FT THROUGH LATE SUN. THE GAP 
WIND EVENT WILL INTENSIFY MON MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT 
LEAST THU WITH MAX WINDS EACH MORNING IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. THIS 
WILL GENERATE AN AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS WITH EACH STRONG PULSE TO 
SPREAD WEST AND COMBINE WITH HIGH SEAS GENERATED IN TEHUANTEPEC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0500 UTC SHOWED 
AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT 
AND SUN...AND WILL INDUCE 20-25 KT NW FLOW WITH SEAS TO 6 FT BY 
SUN EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL