000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI JAN 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 05N85W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N85W TO 
05N100W TO 07N115W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

WEST OF THE NW CORNER...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
30N145W TO 15N152W. N OF 26N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W WINDS ARE 20 
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL. BY SUN EVENING THE 
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND PRODUCE FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 
130W...AND FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W WINDS 20 KT OR 
LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND E SWELL.
  
AN AREA OF TRADEWINDS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 126W 
HAS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SE 
SWELL. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DECREASE IN 24 HOURS ONLY TO GET MUCH 
LARGER IN 48 HOURS.    

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES N OF THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
LOCAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH SUN MORNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...          
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI 
EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL USHER ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY SUNDAY...REACHING GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA...SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE 
REACHING FROM 30N107W TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 25N110W. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALLOW 
AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS FROM 
26N TO 30N TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS 
THAN 8 FT.

$$
FORMOSA