000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU OCT 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.                       

...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...                                    
 
A LOW PRES CENTER IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA CLOSE TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 10N86W 
WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
NEAR THE LOW PRES FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW 
PRESSURE...ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE NORMAL OVERNIGHT 
DRAINAGE FLOW IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK FOLLOWS GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING THE LOW 
PRES DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE W OR WNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR 
STRENGTHENING...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE...AS 
THE LOW DRIFTS W TO NEAR 12N90W ON SAT...NEAR 12N91W ON SUN AND 
NEAR 12N93W ON MON.
   
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N96W TO ACROSS GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
09N96W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N120W TO 
08N130W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN ITCZ THAT EXTENDS TO 
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W 
AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS ANALYZED MOVING W 
OF THE AREA NEAR 13N141W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH 
THIS LOW E OF 140W...BUT AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM SEVERAL 
HOURS AGO INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTH 
OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 1020 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N140W TO 20N115W IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 10N 
AND 20N W OF 120W. A FEW SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE 
NEAR A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 122W BETWEEN 11N 
AND 16N...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. 

FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH REACHING FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 
CABO CORRIENTES ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 18.5N107W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIP C6VG7 INDICATED STRONG GAP WIND FLOW 
WAS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS. THIS COMES IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH 
THE AREA...BUT MAY ALSO BE DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE 
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES 
S OF THE AREA ENHANCING NORMAL NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY...BUT A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PULSE OF 
GAP FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE FRI IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS 
OF 8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA 
REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE 
SUN NIGHT...AND SPREAD SE INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS AS FAR SE 
AS 20N115W BY LATE MON. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 
112W BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN