000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301443
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI MAY 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N OF 04N ALONG 82W TO PANAMA AND INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL 
PERCEPTIBLE WATER IMAGERY. FEATURE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN 
GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES.  HOWEVER...MODELS DEVELOP A WEAK LOW NEAR 
12N95W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ON SATURDAY...PERHAPS IN 
CONNECTION WITH THIS WAVE. SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW ARE 
FORECAST TO BOOST THE SEAS TO 8FT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 
BEYOND SUNDAY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE 
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...SPIN UP THE LOW INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  CORRESPONDINGLY...THERE IS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 13N102W THEN RESUMES 
13N109W TO 07N122W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 10N132W TO 05N138W. ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N138W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 88W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 122W AND 
WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...     

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AMANDA AT 1006 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
18N108W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS. HOWEVER...A 
SMALL AREA OF SEAS 8 FT REMAIN IN SW SWELL IN THE SE QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW.  THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT BY TONIGHT AS THE 
REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN.  THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE 
CHANCE OF RE-GENESIS OF AMANDA AS A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AS 
DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS REACHED THE 
CENTER OF THE LOW.
 
A 1029 MB HIGH REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N125W TO 
24N112W. A NORTHERLY SWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING 
8 FT SEAS.  THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO NEW 
NORTHERLY SWELL IS ANTICIPATED CROSSING OUR NORTHERN BORDER FOR 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT REACHING THE SOUTHERN 
BORDER E OF 105W WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST BEFORE 
DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY.  A NEW BATCH OF LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL 
REACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND COMMENCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE WIND GRIDS...THE PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST...THE GFS...AND THE ECWMF WITH A CAP OF 30 KT FOR THE 
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LOW. FOR THE WAVE GRIDS...THE PREDICTION IS 
A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE WAVEWATCH FROM THE GFS 
WITH A CAP AT 11 FT FOR THE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LOW.

$$ 
LANDSEA