000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011557 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE APR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1445 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON FLOW IS PRESENTLY NON EXISTENT. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N86W TO 04.5N94W TO 01N111W...WHERE IT BECOMES ILL DEFINED... THEN RESUMES AGAIN FROM 06N129W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 45 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 111W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS AT UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 16N AND W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS MEXICO THEN N ACROSS N AMERICA ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM...A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE BAHAMAS SWWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A WEAK AND ELONGATE MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 08N98W. MILD SWLY FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING S OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WAS AIDING IN VENTING CONVECTION DESCRIBED ACROSS E PORTIONS ABOVE...NEAR THE ITCZ. AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND EXTENDED FROM 30N122W TO 27.5N130W TO 28N140W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PERSISTS OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW STATES...AND HAS GENERATED LARGE NW SWELL MOVING INTO THE ARE WATERS...WHERE SEAS WERE RUNNING 8 TO 10 FT N OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONT TO NEAR 22N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF STRONG NE TO E TRADEWINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...N OF 08N TO A LINE FROM 19N140W TO 12N126W...WHERE NE WINDS 20-25 KT WERE CREATING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT...AND EXTENDED FARTHER W TO NEAR 150W. STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ZONE WAS ALSO FORCING THE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. TPW ANIMATIONS INDICATE A LARGE POOL OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS THIS AREA W OF 120W AND EXTENDS TO BEYOND 150W. THIS DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN MAINTAINING A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THIS ZONE. E AND NE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...SURFACE WINDS ARE NW AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALONG THE COAST NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO. SEAS IN THESE AREAS ARE RUNNING 6- 8 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT BY NOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU. AN AREA OF NE SWELL FROM A PREVIOUS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT HAS PROPAGATED WSW TO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N93W TO 05N108W WHERE IT MIXES WITH NW AND SW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SW AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON WED NIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 5-8 FT ARE OBSERVED N OF 04N BETWEEN 79-81W TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP TO 20-25 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL SURGE TO MAX AT 20 KT ON WED NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING