000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 03N95W TO 05N107W TO 05N118W TO 
02N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-115W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-
108W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-106W...AND ALSO 
FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 114W-122W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRESENT OVER THE 
REGION. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. SW 
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO 24N124W TO A 
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 17N130W...AND TO NEAR 07N137W. TO ITS 
NW...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM W OF THE AREA AT 
144W...NEWD TO 24N140W TO 32N133W...AND TO WELL NE OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IN COMBINATION WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS IN THE ITCZ REGION IS ALLOWING FOR CLUSTERS OF MOSTLY 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY TO REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE 
AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE INTO MON AS THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS SEWD 
WHILE BECOMING CUT-OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION 
INCREASING THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THERE. GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE AREA OF 
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR 105W/106W BY THIS EVENING...AND 
SLOWLY MOVE WWD THROUGH MON. PRESENTLY...ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MOSTLY MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS IS OBSERVED TO BE ROUGHLY WITHIN 650 NM SE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH. THIS LARGE MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING NEWD 
TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N-19N 
BETWEEN 120W-126W AND FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 126W-132W. 

OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 15N105W SE TO 07N101W AND SSE TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR AT 97W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EVIDENT TO 
THE E OF THIS TROUGH AS DRY AIR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA ALLOWS FOR ONLY MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO 
DEVELOP E OF THE TROUGH.

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT THERE. AT THE 
SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED AT 34N130W WITH A RIDGE SE 
TO 26N124W TO NEAR 15N115W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME 
HIGH SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 28N140W. NE TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT 
OR LESS ARE WITHIN AN AREA FROM 06N-11N W OF 128W WITH SEAS TO 9 
FT IN NW SWELLS. THESE TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THE SWELLS WILL 8-10 FT...BUT ASSOCIATED 
WITH A LARGE NW SWELLS TRAIN.
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     
THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT ENDED YESTERDAY 
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESIDUAL 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELLS 
ARE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. THIS AREA OF SWELLS 
WILL SHRINK BY 24 HOURS...AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY 
TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE 
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON MON 
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ABATE BY 
EARLY THIS EVENING. 

N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND S TO 05N 
BETWEEN 79W-80W WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO 
BEGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N THIS EVENING. THESE 
WINDS WILL PUNCH S TO NEAR 23N BY SUN EVENING AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN U.S. TERRAIN 
AND TROUGHING ALONG FAR WESTERN MEXICO INTENSIFIES. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FT FROM 23N-24N BY SUN EVENING...AND 
CONTINUE INTO LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$
AGUIRRE