000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU NOV 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS VALID FROM LAST NIGHT REVEALED N- NW WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS OF STORM FORCE ACROSS THE NARROW N TO S CENTRAL SWATH OVER THE GULF. THESE PASSES ALSO DETECTED NW-N WINDS OF 30-35 KT N OF THE AREA IN THE S-CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE AREA OF NORTHERLY GALE WINDS EXTENDING AT LEAST 150 NM FURTHER TO THE N. THIS STRONG FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ITS LIFTS NE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGING. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAKENING OF THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO WEAKEN TO GALE FORCE...WITH FURTHER WEAKENING TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BY DAYBREAK FRI. THE RESULTANT MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS OF AROUND 20 FT IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 12 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND TO 8 FT BY FRI EVENING AS N-NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN DIPS SW TO 08N93W...THEN TURNS NW TO 10N105W AND SLIGHTLY SW TO 09N110W TO 08N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N129W AND TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-116W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W- 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04N TO 08N E OF 87W TO NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 23N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD TO BEYOND 32N123W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERING THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 117W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE... ORIGINATING W OF THE AREA...IS STREAMING NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N145W TO 35N132W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE RETURNS BACK SE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 25N W OF 125W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE S OF THIS LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO ONLY THE SMALL CLUSTERS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS CONTINUES SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO THROUGH AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 08N119W. TO THE SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A PSN FROM 16N110W TO 10N107W. THIS UPPER TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. DRY UPPER AIR...MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IS SEEN N OF 22N W OF THE TROUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY SPAWN A LOW THAT TRACKS NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING INTO A TROOICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED E TO OVER PUERTO RICO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC AT NEAR 14N112W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 95W-110W...AND CONTINUES NE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OLD MEXICO...THEN TURNS EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1029 MB IS WELL N OF THE AREA AT 40N132W WITH A RIDGE SSE TO NEAR 21N126W...AND ANOTHER RIDGE SSW TO SW OF THE AREA AT 30N140W. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING WITH LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO WILL BRING NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 124W-128W THIS AFTERNOON WITH RESULTANT SEAS TO 9 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON SAT WITH THE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15- 20 KT EARLY AND TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELLS WILL LINGER THERE. WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NW PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FRI EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W-122W FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 FT ON SAT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KT TONIGHT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20- 25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON FRI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE FRI NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS ON SUN...THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON SUN INTO MON. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 12N W OF 115W WITH NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT/SEAS 6-9 FT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 10-22N BETWEEN 118-140W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W LATER TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING 8-12 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT N WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 20N W OF 108W BY LATE SAT NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE