000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC MON SEP 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W TO 12N82W 
TO 17N91W WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 17N104W 
TO 10N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07.5N132.5W 1010 MB TO 07N135W... 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 
THE COASTS BETWEEN 79W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED FROM 14N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRES CENTER OF MANUEL WAS CENTERED ALONG THE 
COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO NEAR SAYULITA...DRIFTING SLOWLY NW. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE 
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS 
ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED TSTORMS OCCURRING WITHIN 
180 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SW TO S WINDS OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE S SEMICIRCLE WERE PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS THE 
OFFSHORE WATERS OF JALISCO. ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION 
REMAINS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY 
AND STABLE AIR IS BEING PULLED INTO THIS CIRCULATION FROM THE 
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THIS 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL ARE 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW AND MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW 
LEVEL WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
EPAC EXTENDING NE TO COASTAL ZONES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO AND 
MICHOACAN...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS HAVE 
SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS 
THE WATERS AND SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THESE STATES...WHERE 
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED.

IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM 
THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NW MEXICO TO THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS WEAKENING. THIS TROUGH HAD BEEN 
PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTION E OF 105W 
ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK LOW 
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS 
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCING COASTAL CONVECTION MAINLY AT 
NIGHT.

THE WEAKENING SWATH OF FRESH SW WINDS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON 
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W TO 
110W...WHERE MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS IN EXCESS 
OF 11 FT WITH HIGHEST SEAS ESTIMATED AROUND 13 FT NEAR THE 
COAST. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE OVERALL 
MONSOON GYRE WEAKENS AND REORIENTS ITSELF NORTHWESTWARD. 

FARTHER WEST...1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 37N154W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING E TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N117W. 
ASCAT DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT NW FLOW 
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF THE PENINSULA TO 21.5N...MAINTAINING SEAS 6-7 FT.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL WITH 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.
 
$$
STRIPLING