000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011501
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUL 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA CENTERED AT 17.8N 105.8W WITH ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 998 MB...MOVING NW AT 8 KT. DALILA IS 
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NW OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY NEAR 18.6N 
107.3W BY TUE MORNING. DALILA IS THEN FORECAST TO START A 
WEAKENING TREND TUE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 15N109W TO 11N135W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 
135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY COSME HAS WEAKENED 
TO A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED ENOUGH TO WHERE IT ONLY SUPPORTS MODERATE 
WINDS OVER THIS AREA. THE LINGERING 8 FT SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED 
BELOW 8 FT. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS BROKEN DOWN AS A RESULT OF TROPICAL 
STORM DALILA. ONE LINGERING SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS LOCATION OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS KEEPING THE HEAVIEST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE 
EAST PACIFIC WATERS. 

WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN 
WATERS...THE CARIBBEAN JET REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND LIMITED IN 
LONGITUDINAL EXTENT...WITH NO DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION TOWARD A 
PAPAGAYO JET. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND 
FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING 
AHEAD...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
A TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTS TO 
SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST. THOUGH IT APPEARS WINDS WILL REMAIN 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE WINDS FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE TO END 
OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE ONE TO WATCH 
WITH INTEREST FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. 

$$
AL