000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT DEC 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N83W TO 07N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N105W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 88W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF MONSOON TROF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 102W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO MINIMUM STORM FORCE BY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. REPORTS FROM MMMT (MINATITLAN/COATZACOALCOS) ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ISTHMUS SHOW SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE GAP ALREADY REACHING 30 KT. MMIT (IXTEPEC) ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS HAS BEEN 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. A CLEAR AREA OF OUTFLOW FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATING A STRONG PULSE IS STARTING. STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TO VERACRUZ...WHERE GUSTS ARE AT 35 KT. AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES SOUTH TONIGHT...THE AREA WITH THE TIGHTEST PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS WELL...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND AIDED BY DRAINAGE EFFECTS. THE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SUN TO GALE FORCE...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE AIRMASS TO THE NORTHERN MODIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADEWINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE PERSISTENT PAPAGAYO JET WITH STRONG WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTING TONIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ABOVE THE COAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A SHARP TRAILING TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 08N140W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 28N125W WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA. 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND SETTLE NEAR 30N135W BY MIDDAY SUN. NW TO N 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 12 TO 15 SECOND SWELL WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THAT ROUND OF NW SWELL WILL SWEEP THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY MIDDAY MON...AS ANOTHER GROUP OF NW SWELL PUSHES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE SUN...COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W IN 8 TO 11 FT SWELL WITH PERIODS TO 16 SECONDS. FARTHER SOUTH...SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REINFORCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...MAINLY IN THE AREA FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 120W THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N120W...FURTHER ENHANCING TRADE WINDS SUN INTO MON. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FARTHER EAST N OF THE MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 92W AND 102W...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM WINDS EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. $$ CHRISTENSEN