000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W...THEN ITCZ 
FROM 06N90W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 137W EXTENDS E-W ALONG 27N. OSCAT
AND ASCAT DATA SHOWED FRESH NW WINDS N OF 24N E OF THE RIDGE NEAR
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 120W. WIND 
WAVES GENERATED BY THE ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW IS MIXING WITH 
RESIDUAL LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED SEVERAL DAYS AGO 
IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF COMBINED 
SEAS TO 13 FT JUST N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY W OF 115W.
NEARLY ALL THE FCST AREA HAS SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER THIS MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE 
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD JUST N OF 30N. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA WED 
AND WED NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS N OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 
SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO 11 FT WHICH WILL REACH NW CORNER
OF THE AREA WED MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND 
THE FRONT NEAR 35N140W WED THEN SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH FRI AS 
ANOTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD N OF 30N. THE 
ITCZ WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG 08N/09N THROUGH FRI...SUPPORTING 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM 
10N TO 20N W OF 125W THROUGH WED...RETREATING FURTHER WEST WED 
NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.

GAP WINDS...
OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0546 UTC SHOWED GAP WINDS FROM GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC E-SE TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DIMINISHING TO 20-25 
KT...AND SHRINKING CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL EXTENT. EXPECT FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE WEAKER FLOW 
EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...SEAS DOWNSTREAM FROM GAP WIND 
SOURCE REGIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL