000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 06N89W...THEN ITCZ TO 
04N99W TO 08N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 27N REMAINS PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN 
THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LARGE AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS S OF THE RIDGE...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS FROM 08N TO 
19N W OF 125W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SWEEP 
SOUTHWARD OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 13 FT W OF 110W. EAST OF 110W 
MERGING NE SWELL GENERATED BY HIGH WINDS NEAR GULFS OF PAPAGAYO 
AND TEHUANTEPEC...AS WELL AS FONSECA TO LESSER EXTENT...ARE 
CREATING LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS S OF 14N.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD N OF 30N. THE 
TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS N OF 
28N TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND 
THE FRONT NEAR 35N140W WED...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH 
THU NIGHT AS ANOTHER CENTRAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD 
N OF 30N. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG 8N/9N 
THROUGH FRI...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS S OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 110W THROUGH WED THEN 
SHIFT FURTHER WEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.

GAP WINDS...
MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL