000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160915 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN DEC 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N93W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 128W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE 1030 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 32N152W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO NEAR 21N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING AND AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 120W AND FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THESE WINDS WERE DEPICTED WELL IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS TIME. THIS WILL DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS AS WELL AS DIMINISH WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BY MON NIGHT. THE WEAKENED RIDGE WILL ALSO ENABLE FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS INTO THE AREA BY LATE MON NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE FRI. $$ AL