000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N95W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
09N100W 1011 MB TO 08N110W TO 10N120W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 
LINE FROM 07N78W TO 05N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM IN THE W QUADRANT OF LOW. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N118W TO 12N112W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 30N...WITH 
AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 
41N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE STRONG HIGH IS ENOUGH 
TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON ITS PERIPHERY. THESE WINDS 
ARE OCCURRING FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 132W ALONG WITH ESTIMATED 
SEAS OF 9-10 FT. AN AREA OF MIXED NE AND NW SWELL TO 9 FT 
SURROUNDS THESE WINDS N OF 10N W OF A LINE FROM 30N124W TO 
10N134W. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS AND 
SHIFT WEST TO 150W BEGINNING LATER TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TROUGH DIGS N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE 
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS TO DIMINISH.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO NEAR 30N110W TO ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 26N134W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE IS TO THE W OVER 25N144W WITH A TROUGH REACHING TO THE E 
NEAR 26N137W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE COMMENCED IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INDUCED BY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES 
OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND INVERTED TROUGHING ALONG THE W 
COAST OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO 25N 
THROUGH TODAY...DIMINISHING TUE AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
WEAKENS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS S OF 
20N W OF 110W WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION AT THE SURFACE UNDER 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TO THE E...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH REACHES 
FROM SE MEXICO TO JUST W OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE TO 
NEAR 02N86W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR PRESENT S 
OF 09N AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 100W WITH LIMITED 
CONVECTION PRESENT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. 
THIS SWELL IS ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS. THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SWELL PROPAGATES 
TO THE W-NW THROUGH 48 HOURS.

FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE ASSOCIATED 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS MID 
WEEK AROUND LATE WED INTO THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 
FT BY LATE WED WITH THIS EVENT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 10-15 KT 
WITH AN OCCASIONAL SURGE TO 15-20 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT.

$$
LEWITSKY