000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100932 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON DEC 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO 09N86W TO 07N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N99W 1010 MB TO 06N105W. ITCZ AXIS RUNS FROM 06N105W TO 10N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. MODERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 30N...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N140W. THE PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE STRONG HIGH PRES IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON ITS PERIPHERY. OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...A 06 UTC ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS VARIOUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 130W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 9 FT. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SHIFT WEST TO 150W THROUGH LATE MON AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF 15N W OF 130W TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE TUE. A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N120W TO 15N115W HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL REACH AS FAR AS 03N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W BY TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE WEEK...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NE PACIFIC THROUGH TUE WILL DIG DOWN THE WEST COAST OF UNITED STATE WED THROUGH FRI...SUPPORTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 135W THROUGH WED...REACHING NORTHERN BAJA BY EARLY THU. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CUT OFF DEEP LAYER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE DOWN THE COAST OF BAJA THROUGH FRI AS THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS LIFT NE. E OF 110W... A SERIES OF WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALOFT HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING SPORADIC SUPPORT OF A WEAK LOW PRES OR TROUGH ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION HAS PULSED OCCASIONALLY BUT IS LIMITED BY DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE WINDS ARE BARELY BREACHING 15 KT ON THE N SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS IT DRIFTS WEST. FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MON MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED NLY WINDS WILL SURGE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS MID WEEK AROUND LATE WED INTO THU. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10 FT BY LATE WED WITH THIS EVENT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 10-15 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SURGE TO 15-20 KT AS CONFIRMED BY ASCAT/OSCAT PASSES FROM TODAY...IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING LATE WED NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN