000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080346 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT DEC 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT 07N78W TO 09N88W TO 08N98W....WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST AN ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 08N110W TO 09N120W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. +...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE AN UPPER CYCLONE MOVING SSE IS AT 30N142W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N137W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS JUST TO ITS SE FROM 13N138W NE TO 22N133W TO A CREST AT 31N130W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EWD...IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. BROAD TROUGHING IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL AND WRN U.S. WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH PATTERN ALONG 32N110W TO 24N115W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N123W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AT 123W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N92W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM ABOUT 11N-17N BETWEEN 113W-120W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS ADVECTED N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 360 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N119W TO 20N112W AND NEWD TO THE E AND SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OVER THE SRN AND SE U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO BROAD SCALE RIDGING OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THERE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SMALL CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ALONG A PSN FROM FAR NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO 26N122W AND NW TO 32N114W TO 27N121W TO 30N130W AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIDGES SEWD ACROSS IT. NLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF THE DECAYING FRONT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN A N TO NW SWELL. THE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 20-25 KT IN THE AREA FROM 08 TO 21N W OF 127W...WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS AREA OF NE TRADES WILL EXPAND NWD TO N OF 12N W OF 130W WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN A NE SWELL COMPONENT AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE DECAYING FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON SAT. A SECONDARY NLY SURGE AT 15-20 KT IS FORECAST TO SURGE THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 122W-132W ON SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. EXPECT NW WINDS AT 10 KT WITH SEAS 3-6 FT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SAT...THEN GENERALLY W-NW WINDS AT 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP S INTO THE NE WATERS TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING NE 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON MON. THESE WINDS COULD BECOME NW AT 20-30 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BRIEFLY LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KT SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON NIGHT. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE NRN PART OF THE GULF BEGINNING SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THESE WINDS INCREASING WED...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF THEY WILL ATTAIN GALE FORCE INTENSITY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 10-15 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING ON WED NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE