000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N78W TO 08N88W TO 07N98W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N98W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N134W TO BEYOND 32N120W AND OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ORIGINATE OVER 
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 26N137W AND RIDE SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW N OF 30N. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA THE 
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. AT THE SURFACE THIS 
STABILITY MANIFESTS ITSELF AS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N125W. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THIS AREA REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY 
CRITERIA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 117W OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.

S OF 20N...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N125W TO A 
BASE NEAR 02N130W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS... 
SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING AN AREA OF INCREASED 
CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W WITH 
MORE ISOLATED MODERATE COVNECTION FARTHER SW FROM 06N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 
110W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...ANCHORED BY 
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N104W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WHILE 
AT THE SURFACE ONLY MIMIMAL DYNAMIC LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY 
THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 07N. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS AT THIS TIME.

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY 
WEDNESDAY...AND DELIVER A ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN THE 
GULF COAST OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH 30 KT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 
THROUGH THURSDAY TO 10 FT. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGEST 
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...THE NAM HINTS AT WINDS 
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE VERY BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ON 
THURSDAY WITH MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW PEAKING AROUND 06/1200 
UTC...HOWEVER WILL HOLD WINDS AT A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT BASED ON A 
LOW CONFIDENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 15 
KT IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. 

$$
HUFFMAN