000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N78W TO 05N80W TO 09N85W TO 
07N96W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ 
AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA REMAINS CENTERED 
NEAR 27N129W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH 24 HOURS 
AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDS N OF 20N. SHIPS C6QM8...A8FA6 AND 
3EUS REPORTED 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OFF THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRES. 
ASCAT DATA FROM 2030 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 
08N TO 18N W OF 125W  S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE OF THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W...AIDED IN PART BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 13N135W. NW SWELL COVERS THE MOST OF 
THE AREA W OF 110W...MIXING WITH FRESH NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF 
20 TO 25 KT TRADES. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL WILL PUSH AS FAR N 
AS 04N BY WED AND MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.

E OF 110W...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GAP WIND FLOW 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL 
LIKELY BE A BRIEF PULSE OF 20 KT OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER LATE 
TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG GAP 
WINDS THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO BY LATE TUE...AND DELIVER A ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
DOWN THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE NIGHT. FUNNELING MAY ALLOW 
THESE WINDS TO REACH 30 KT BY EARLY WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 
FT. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE GAP 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE BRIEFLY BY 
THU MORNING. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT 
DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 15 
KT IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN